What's next for the rotation?
The Orioles don't have many healthy rotation options left, but they do have one intriguing starter who looks ready.
Shortly after Corbin Burnes suggested to reporters on Tuesday that the issue with his offer from the Orioles was years, not salary, Roch Kubatko reported that the offer was $180 million over four years, which was quickly confirmed by the Banner and others.
That is a huge offer. And at $45 million average annual value, it's a very competitive one, regardless of what Burnes may feel about the number of years. I reached out to Jon Becker, who analyzes contracts for FanGraphs, to put the offer in context.
Because Burnes' 6 year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks includes $64 million in deferrals, Becker estimates the near present value of the deal to be around $198 million, not much more than the Orioles' total offer despite being spread over additional years. And the average annual value of his deal is more like $33 million, which pales in comparison to the annual salary in the Orioles' offer. Unless Burnes has a career-ending injury or an unexpectedly early decline, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't have ended up making more by taking Baltimore's offer and hitting the market again at age 34.
But, whether due to the proximity to his home in Arizona, the lax income taxes, the flattery and stability of the additional years or some combination of factors, Burnes did not take the Orioles' offer. Instead, the Orioles pivoted to signing a duo — eventually a trio — of veteran backend starters on 1-year deals to ensure the rotation had enough depth and reliability to keep the team competitive. They might not have signed an ace, but being 8-10 deep in legitimate MLB starters, the thought process went, would raise the rotation's floor.
Fast forward to April 8. Grayson Rodriguez is recovering from elbow inflammation. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are not expected back before the second half as they recover from elbow surgery. Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott, two important depth options, are also recovering from injuries. Albert Suarez, who made the roster as the long reliever and swing man, is out for months with a shoulder injury. Kyle Gibson, the 11th-hour, seemingly superfluous depth signing, is still building up after missing all of Spring Training.
And now Zach Eflin, the team's Opening Day starter, has hit the IL with a grade 1 lat strain. Low-grade strains typically require a 2-3 week recovery time. Assuming that's all we're dealing with, it's very possible that the Orioles could again have more than five starter options come May 1. But, at least in the short term, they need to sift through the wreckage to find someone who can give them starts.
Luckily, they have one intriguing option who looks ready: Brandon Young.
What Brandon Young offers
The Orioles acquired Brandon Young as an undrafted free agent out of Louisiana-Lafayette in 2020, a victim of the shortened draft. The Ragin' Cajun went on to post a solid 3.52 ERA and strong 22% strikeout rate in his debut between the two A-ball levels. Unfortunately, he missed most of the next two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he did manage to make it to AA before the end of 2023.
He put himself back on the map in 2024, posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.14 FIP split between the highest levels of the Orioles organization and demonstrating the ability to occasionally sit 93-95 rather than his previous average of 92-93.
Despite the modest velocity, Young already profiled as a backend starter due to his plus command of a clear starters arsenal: a fastball, changeup, curveball and cutter that all grade out as average or better. The above average change, in particular, gives him a high floor as someone who can get lefties out, with the command and frame to be an innings-eater.
But the mid-90s Young who has showed up from time-to-time since his elbow surgery suggests a higher ceiling, maybe a solid #3. He didn't allow an earned run in his first two starts in Norfolk, striking out 11 in 11.2 innings pitched.
Prior to the season, ZiPS projected him for a 4.16 ERA in a swing-starter role. It's always hard to predict how guys will handle the jump from AAA to MLB, but at 26 and now on the 40-man roster, with Tommy John surgery behind him and 100 AAA innings under his belt, Young seems well positioned to be the next man up.