Will we ever have fun again?

On July 1, 2024, the Orioles were in 1st place in the AL East with a 53-31 record, coming off an incredible 101-win season and their first playoff appearance in seven years. They had their ace in Corbin Burnes, and they had a new billionaire owner. Mike Elias and his team had completely rebuilt the foundation of the team, and not even a frustrating first-round exit could sway fan exuberance and the perception that the team was at the beginning of a sustained period of success.

Since that day, the Orioles have been a sub-.500 team, and just about everything has felt bad. The unbearable weight of high expectations after a long period of hopelessness has led to a tense environment for the discourse, to say the least. The frustration has been completely understandable, but I don't think I'm alone in feeling burnt out by the endless cycle of outrage (of which I am a guilty member).

I moved from Twitter to BlueSky late last year in part to try to escape that sense of hopelessness (and the myriad other things wrong with the platform). And for a while, it worked. I still strongly prefer posting and engaging there. But I realized that a big part of my problem is an addiction to instant reaction. During good times, this can be exhilarating — tapping into a communal sense of pride and joy. During bad times it's a death spiral, and I couldn't get out of it.

I have broad thoughts about the organization, Elias, Rubenstein and the heartbreak and uncertainty of baseball. But I'd like to take some time to let those ideas coalesce, to lay out my assumptions and come back to them and question them over time, so bear with me if you're here for a hot take right off the bat.

I'd like to use this newsletter as a way of slowing down my reactions, freeing myself up to enjoy the games on a simpler level while building my analysis over a longer timeline. I'm planning to send the newsletter out roughly weekly, but I may occasionally post quick hits on oriolesreview.com. I'm no stranger to newsletters, but I'll admit I'm diving into this pretty quickly, so apologies in advance if it takes me a minute to find my footing here. If you are interested in coming along for the ride, please hit subscribe to get this in your inbox. It's free.

Now onto other things.

What to make of Cade Povich

After Sunday's 6-inning, 4-run performance, Cade Povich is sporting an unsightly 6.10 ERA through his first two starts, but that number is inflated in part due to an unsustainable .529 BABIP (yes, the Mateo non-error is one of those balls in play).

His peripherals are excellent across the board, with a 25% K-rate and 4.2% BB-rate driving his extremely low 1.34 FIP. His xERA and xFIP are a bit higher, 5.76 and 2.97, respectively. This is in part due to the fact that he has not given up a home run despite quite a bit of hard contact in the air, maybe the one sobering metric underlying his results. While his stuff is grading out around where it did last year, his command is better, giving him a 3.98 BotERA and 101 Pitching+.

Stretching back to his return to the majors in August of last year, he has a 4.60 ERA, 3.06 FIP and 3.75 xFIP. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but he's shown a leap forward in control without sacrificing any ability to miss bats. If he can limit the hard contact I still see mid-rotation upside, even if he's not fully baked quite yet.

On the farm

• A trio of interesting starting pitcher prospects — Brandon Young, Zach Fruit and Michael Forret — combined for 14.2 shutout innings with 17 total strikeouts on Sunday. Young, who has not allowed a run in 2 starts at Norfolk, should debut at some point this season. While Fruit, who showed off triple-digit heat in camp, brings significant reliever risk with his cross-body delivery, his expanded arsenal and filthy stuff make him a must-follow. Forret, Baseball America's #8 Orioles prospect, turned heads with a high strikeout rate and solid results across both levels of A-ball as a 20-year-old last year. He's got quite a bit of development left, but it's easy mid-rotation upside.
• Austin Overn showed well in Aberdeen's first series, going 3-for-11 with a home run and 3 walks. He has a wOBA over .400 in his brief pro career, demonstrating the ability to make harder contact than expected despite a bit more whiff than expected, using his speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He works the strike zone well, with a walk rate over 16% in the minors. AA will be a big test, but he's off to a good start.
• Sickos rejoice – Jud Fabian is back at it again with a .233/.281/.533 line in Norfolk. The walk rate is down early, but so is the strikeout rate, and he's shown his signature plus power with 3 Jud Bombs in his first 33 plate appearances. His flaws are obvious: He's going to strike out — a lot — and he may never hit right-handed pitching. But a combination of plus speed, defense and power makes him an intriguing candidate for 4th outfielder or Enrique Bradfield Jr.'s platoon partner in center.

Ask me questions!

I'm still working out the format of this thing, but I know I'd like to incorporate some kind of mailbag/Q&A feature, maybe even the occasional live chat if I can build up enough readers. For now, reply to these email it it's in your inbox, hit me at oriolesprospectreview@gmail.com or DM me on BlueSky @oriolesreview.bsky.social with your burning questions about anything related to the Orioles, their minor league system, the draft, or baseball at large. Or ask me about something else if you want, but I might not answer it here.

Thanks for reading. Subscribe for more in your inbox next week. — Dan